Actual result
D+10.3
Final polls said
D+1.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potomac Incorporated | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+5.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+13.0 | 23.3 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-27 | 828 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 1998-10-24 | 1205 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 1998-10-20 | 919 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 911 | R+13.0 | 23 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-16 | 828 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 1998-10-01 | 1204 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-19 | 804 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 1998-09-05 | 1204 | D+1.0 | 9 |