Wes Moore (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Maryland Governor race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 24 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. Dashed line = even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+24.1 — a 93% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[92] | 2026-01-06 | 808 | D+22.0 |
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Maryland Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Wes Moore (D), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+24.1.
What do the polls say in the Maryland Governor race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Gonzales Research[92] (2026-01-06), showed D+22.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+24.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Maryland Governor race?
Wes Moore is the Democratic candidate; Generic is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Maryland Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Maryland Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.