Actual result
D+35.2
Final polls said
D+45.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | D+41.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Becker Institute | D+45.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+20.0 | 15.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+18.0 | 17.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Becker Institute | 1998-10-17 | 355 | D+45.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-29 | 627 | D+20.0 | 15 |
| American Research Group | 1998-09-10 | 634 | D+18.0 | 17 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 1998-09-10 | 494 | D+41.0 | 6 |