New Hampshire Governor
Kelly Ayotte (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race — about a 88% chance, winning by about 13 points in the projection. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+13.1 — a 88% Republican win.
Latest news
After decade of GOP control, Democrats recruit challenger in key swing stateDemocrat Cinde Warmington launches gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, targeting affordability and Trump policies.
Fox News · February 18, 2026- New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challenger - Politico
New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challengerPolitico News 9 Exclusive: Democrat Cinde Warmington running for New Hampshire governorWMUR Cinde Warmington launches second Democratic bid for N.H. governorThe Boston Globe Warmington laun…
Slashdot.org · February 18, 2026 
N.H. Candidate for governor’s latest TV ad: ‘I grew up on shaky ground’Cinde Warmington is so far the only New Hampshire gubernatorial candidate to buy ad time from WMUR this cycle
The Boston Globe · June 10, 2024
New Hampshire Contender Got Big Donations From Pain Clinic At Heart Of State’s Opioid CrisisBut Cinde Warmington said her work on the New Hampshire Executive Council, where she is the sole Democrat, speaks for itself.
HuffPost · December 1, 2023
New Hampshire candidate's ties to oxy manfacturer 'death knell in a general election'Cinde Warmington, a Democrat running for governor of New Hampshire next year, has sought to prioritize fighting the opioid epidemic. In one ad, she promises to “finally tackle the mental health crisis and fentanyl crisis in a real way, so that families can ge…
Raw Story · July 4, 2023
- NH schools cash in as Mark Martin, Gov. Kelly Ayotte race in NASCAR simulator
Call it even with an asterisk. With his victory over Gov. Kelly Ayotte in a simulated stock car clash at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, NASCAR Hall of Fame driver Mark Martin pulled out his second victory in the Granite State. Believe it or not, Martin has now…
The Union Leader · Yesterday 
Comments - Who is Kelly Ayotte, Governor of New Hampshire? She made millions serving on the Boards of Blackstone, Caterpillar, Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp, Boston Properties, Blink HealthBlackstone has a notorious reputation as a company that evaluates employees solely on their ability to make money, regardless of the methods used. Rather than fostering growth and generating profits for the companies they invest in, they tend to strip them o…
Substack.com · August 12, 2026
'You can't fight it': Trump defends data centers, signs up 23 governors to shield Americans from price hikesPresident Donald Trump is bullish on American technology and keen to see America dominate the "global race for AI." He has, accordingly, become a champion of artificial intelligence data centers and has even tasked his administration with using federally owne…
TheBlaze · July 24, 2026
New Hampshire Gov. signs law requiring schools to out trans studentsNew Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte has signed legislation requiring public school employees to disclose information about transgender students to their parents or legal guardians, reversing a 2024 state Supreme Court ruling that upheld students’ privacy rights i…
Thepinknews.com · July 9, 2026
Before the Boston Tea Party, there were New Hampshire's Pine Tree RiotsGov. Kelly Ayotte says the Pine Tree Riot in New Hampshire predated the Boston Tea Party and may have inspired the famous colonial protest.
Fox News · July 5, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Kelly Ayotte (R), with roughly a 88% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+13.1.
What do the polls say in the New Hampshire Governor race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from Saint Anselm (2026-06-25), showed R+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+13.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race?
Cinde Warmington is the Democratic candidate; Kelly Ayotte is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Hampshire Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.