VotePredictor
all races

New Hampshire Governor

Jon Kiper (D) vs Kelly Ayotte (R)

Forecast — win probability
Jon Kiper (D)
13%
(R) Kelly Ayotte
87%
Likely R · model margin R+17.7

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+17.7 — a 87% Republican win.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100FebMarAprMayJunJul87% R13% D
Democrats 13% Republicans 87%

Latest news

Jon Kiper (D)
Kelly Ayotte (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (3)

PollsterDatenPoll
Saint Anselm2026-03-181491R+14.0
yes. every kid.2026-01-29563R+10.0
University of New Hampshire2026-01-192031R+11.0