New Hampshire Governor
Kelly Ayotte (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 14 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+14.0 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
Ex-Dem lobbyist for company that promoted addictive opioid clears key gubernatorial hurdleCinde Warmington faces renewed attacks over her Purdue Pharma legal work as she secures the Democratic nomination for New Hampshire governor.
Fox News · September 9, 2026
Incumbent GOP governor rolls to primary victory after keeping Trump at a distanceKelly Ayotte cruised past Republican primary challengers, setting up a high-stakes New Hampshire governor's race against Democrat Cinde Warmington.
Fox News · September 9, 2026
GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cinde Warmington to face off for New Hampshire governorshipNew Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, will face off against Democrat Cinde Warmington in November’s general election, NBC News projects, as the incumbent seeks another two-year term.
NBC News · September 9, 2026
After decade of GOP control, Democrats recruit challenger in key swing stateDemocrat Cinde Warmington launches gubernatorial campaign against Gov. Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, targeting affordability and Trump policies.
Fox News · February 18, 2026- New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challenger - Politico
New Hampshire’s GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte draws her first major challengerPolitico News 9 Exclusive: Democrat Cinde Warmington running for New Hampshire governorWMUR Cinde Warmington launches second Democratic bid for N.H. governorThe Boston Globe Warmington laun…
Slashdot.org · February 18, 2026
GOP candidate flailing after Republicans hyped up their odds of blue-state upset: reportRepublicans once counted New Hampshire among their likeliest pickups. Their top recruit, John E. Sununu, is now trailing as the race for senator slips from their grasp, according to a Washington Sun report.When Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement, GO…
Raw Story · Yesterday- Incumbent GOP governor rolls to primary victory after keeping Trump at a distance
Kelly Ayotte cruised past Republican primary challengers, setting up a high-stakes New Hampshire governor's race against Democrat Cinde Warmington.
Fox News · September 9, 2026 - GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cinde Warmington to face off for New Hampshire governorship
New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, will face off against Democrat Cinde Warmington in November’s general election, NBC News projects, as the incumbent seeks another two-year term.
NBC News · September 9, 2026 - NH schools cash in as Mark Martin, Gov. Kelly Ayotte race in NASCAR simulator
Call it even with an asterisk. With his victory over Gov. Kelly Ayotte in a simulated stock car clash at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, NASCAR Hall of Fame driver Mark Martin pulled out his second victory in the Granite State. Believe it or not, Martin has now…
The Union Leader · August 23, 2026 
Comments - Who is Kelly Ayotte, Governor of New Hampshire? She made millions serving on the Boards of Blackstone, Caterpillar, Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp, Boston Properties, Blink HealthBlackstone has a notorious reputation as a company that evaluates employees solely on their ability to make money, regardless of the methods used. Rather than fostering growth and generating profits for the companies they invest in, they tend to strip them o…
Substack.com · August 12, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Kelly Ayotte (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+14.0.
What do the polls say in the New Hampshire Governor race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from Saint Anselm College (2026-09-29), showed R+7.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+14.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Hampshire Governor race?
Cinde Warmington is the Democratic candidate; Kelly Ayotte is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New Hampshire Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Kelly Ayotte's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Hampshire Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.