Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+17.7 — a 87% Republican win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
New Hampshire Gov. signs law requiring schools to out trans studentsNew Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte has signed legislation requiring public school employees to disclose information about transgender students to their parents or legal guardians, reversing a 2024 state Supreme Court ruling that upheld students’ privacy rights i…
Thepinknews.com · Yesterday
Before the Boston Tea Party, there were New Hampshire's Pine Tree RiotsGov. Kelly Ayotte says the Pine Tree Riot in New Hampshire predated the Boston Tea Party and may have inspired the famous colonial protest.
Fox News · July 5, 2026
New Hampshire GOP Governor Vetoes ‘Bathroom Bill’ AgainGOP New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte again vetoed a "bathroom bill" that would have banned transgender-identifying men from women's spaces. The post New Hampshire GOP Governor Vetoes ‘Bathroom Bill’ Again appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · June 22, 2026
New Hampshire Sends Message to Drivers Using Hand-Held Electronic DevicesThe state of New Hampshire is getting tougher with drivers using smartphones or other electronic devices while driving. Gov. Kelly Ayotte has signed into law a measure that hikes the financial penalties and adds license suspension for repeat offenses involvin…
Insurance Journal · June 1, 2026
New Hampshire Ups DUI Test Refusal PenaltyNew Hampshire Governor Kelly Ayotte recently signed into law an increase in the penalty for drivers who refused a breath alcohol test when stopped on suspicion of driving under the influence (DUI). Senate Bill 620 increases the administrative license suspensi…
Insurance Journal · May 1, 2026
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Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | 2026-03-18 | 1491 | R+14.0 |
| yes. every kid. | 2026-01-29 | 563 | R+10.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-01-19 | 2031 | R+11.0 |