New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+6.0 — a 93% Democratic win.
Latest news
GOP candidate flailing after Republicans hyped up their odds of blue-state upset: reportRepublicans once counted New Hampshire among their likeliest pickups. Their top recruit, John E. Sununu, is now trailing as the race for senator slips from their grasp, according to a Washington Sun report.When Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement, GO…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Chris Pappas leads New Hampshire Senate race, polls show Democratic edgeA Democratic lead in the New Hampshire Senate race could influence party strategies and voter engagement in upcoming elections nationwide. The post Chris Pappas leads New Hampshire Senate race, polls show Democratic edge appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · October 6, 2026
GOP's Sununu Surges in Bid to Flip Democrat's New Hampshire Senate SeatDemocrat Chris Pappas' lead appears to be diminishing versus Republican John E. Sununu in the battle for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, as midterm elections are roughly four weeks away. A new poll released by Rasmussen Reports shows that 49 percent would vote …
Biztoc.com · October 5, 2026
Midterm Race Ratings Have Never Mattered More and Never Been so DisruptiveSeven days after winning the Democratic Primary in New Hampshire, Congressman Chris Pappas had important news to share: “BREAKING: The Cook Political Report just moved New Hampshire’s Senate race to Toss Up.” Never mind that the state hasn’t voted for a Repub…
Biztoc.com · October 2, 2026- 3 Bright Spots for the G.O.P.
This week we put out our latest set of New York Times/Siena University polls examining how voters are feeling about the Senate races in Maine, Michigan and New Hampshire. They contain a lot of good news for Democrats — something of a theme in our recent polls…
Freerepublic.com · September 25, 2026
Amid Blue-Wave Panic, Republicans Still Hopeful About New HampshireNew Hampshire Senate race has become one to watch, as John Sununu tries to outrun Donald Trump’s unpopularity
Time · October 5, 2026
How Worried Should Dems Be About the GOP’s Huge Cash Advantage?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?Late Wednesday nig…
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Just How Bad Will Trump’s New Labor Secretary Be?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington On Wednesday, a party line vote of 47–41 confirmed Keith Sonderling as the head o…
The New Republic · October 1, 2026
Chris Pappas Leads in New Hampshire Senate RaceA new InsiderAdvantage poll in New Hampshire finds Chris Pappas (D) leading John Sununu (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 40%. New Hampshire Senate Race Chris Pappas (D) 48% John Sununu (R) 40% InsiderAdvantage poll · likely voters · ±2.83%
Politicalwire.com · September 18, 2026
Race to Replace Democrat Senator in New Hampshire Shifts Toward GOPThe race to replace retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire has shifted toward Republicans, with The Cook Political Report moving the contest from Lean Democratic to Toss Up as former Republican Senator John Sununu and Democratic Represent…
Biztoc.com · September 16, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Chris Pappas (D), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+6.0.
What do the polls say in the New Hampshire Senate race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from The New York Times/Siena University (2026-09-22), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+6.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
Chris Pappas is the Democratic candidate; John Sununu is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New Hampshire Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Chris Pappas's (D) lead has widened to 93%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Hampshire Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.