New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas (D) is a modest favorite to win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race — about a 62% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection. Updated daily from 7 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 7 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+3.3 — a 62% Democratic win.
Latest news
Republicans’ Chances of Flipping New Hampshire Senate Seat—PollRepublicans view the New Hampshire U.S. Senate race as one of their few pickup opportunities in this year's midterm elections, but a poll released this week showed Democratic Representative Chris Pappas with a lead over his two potential Republican rivals. De…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
Trump's on course to crash and burn — and his actions show he knows itTrump, his billionaire buddies, and his Republican lickspittles appear to be setting up a possible massive fraud with regard to this fall’s election. It could signal the end of American democracy.We democracy-loving Americans have fought oligarchy three times…
Raw Story · July 25, 2026- House approves long-awaited stock trading ‘ban’ — here’s who the largest traders are (ony 4.51 years left)
WASHINGTON — The House passed a sweeping set of restrictions on stock trades by lawmakers and their spouses that was paired with a voter ID provision that scared off many Democrats. The “Stop Insider Trading Act” cleared the House 232 to 198, with the full su…
Freerepublic.com · July 23, 2026 
13 Dems Help House GOP Pass Stock Trading Ban That Includes Trump Attack on VotersThe US House of Representatives on Wednesday held a series of key votes, including one in which over a dozen Democrats helped Republicans pass a purported congressional stock trading ban, even though the GOP tacked on a voter suppression provision demanded by…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
New Hampshire becomes the Senate midterms’ sleeper raceThe News Democrats are dreaming of taking over the Senate and winning in red states from Iowa to Alaska. Chris Pappas wants to make sure they don’t forget about New Hampshire. Pappas, a four-term congressman, is the party’s consensus candidate to succeed reti…
Biztoc.com · June 29, 2026
- New Hampshire candidate John Sununu blasts Dems for moving ‘First in the Nation Primary’ on RuthlessYahoo Entertainment · August 18, 2026
New Hampshire candidate John Sununu blasts Dems for noving ‘First in the Nation Primary’ on RuthlessNew Hampshire Republican Senate hopeful John Sununu blasted the DNC on the Ruthless Podcast for removing the state as the first primary in the nomination process.
Fox News · August 18, 2026- Sen. Kennedy Predicts Schumer Shutdown Before Midterms
While campaigning in New Hampshire for U.S. Senate candidate John Sununu, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he expects another federal government shutdown in September, in order to give Democrats an advantage in the November midterm elections. Kennedy told repor…
Freerepublic.com · June 15, 2026 
Sen. Kennedy Predicts Schumer Shutdown Before MidtermsWhile campaigning in New Hampshire for U.S. Senate candidate John Sununu, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he expects another federal government shutdown in September, in order to give Democrats an advantage in the November midterm elections. Kennedy told repor…
Daily Signal · June 15, 2026
Iconic strategist drops blunt reminder to Dems about key state: 'It's a warning sign'Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville is raising urgent warnings about the New Hampshire Senate race, saying it demands far more attention than it's currently receiving."What I'm seeing in New Hampshire right now is keeping me up at night — and it sh…
Raw Story · May 10, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Chris Pappas (D), with roughly a 62% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+3.3.
What do the polls say in the New Hampshire Senate race?
There are 7 polls of this race. The most recent, from Saint Anselm (2026-06-25), showed D+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+3.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
Chris Pappas is the Democratic candidate; John Sununu is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Hampshire Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.