New Hampshire Senate
Chris Pappas (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race — about a 93% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+6.1 — a 93% Democratic win.
Latest news
Will Republicans or Democrats win the Senate? These key midterm races will decide.Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in November's election. But as important as the House of Representatives is, all signs point to the true drama of the midterms being in the battle for the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot thi…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 13, 2026
Transcript: Rep. Chris Pappas on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan," Oct. 11, 2026The following is the transcript of the interview with Democratic New Hampshire Senate candidate Rep. Chris Pappas that aired on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Oct. 11, 2026.
CBS News · October 11, 2026- Democrat Chris Pappas says "we're taking nothing for granted" in N.H. race
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who's running to represent New Hampshire in the Senate, said that "we're taking nothing for granted" as Election Day approaches, amid a "tough race" in the Granite State.
CBS News · October 11, 2026 
GOP candidate flailing after Republicans hyped up their odds of blue-state upset: reportRepublicans once counted New Hampshire among their likeliest pickups. Their top recruit, John E. Sununu, is now trailing as the race for senator slips from their grasp, according to a Washington Sun report.When Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement, GO…
Raw Story · October 8, 2026
Chris Pappas leads New Hampshire Senate race, polls show Democratic edgeA Democratic lead in the New Hampshire Senate race could influence party strategies and voter engagement in upcoming elections nationwide. The post Chris Pappas leads New Hampshire Senate race, polls show Democratic edge appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Crypto Briefing · October 6, 2026
Spoiler campaigns deployed by political operative who cost the GOP in 2016: reportAaron Day, the third-party candidate who helped sink Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s reelection bid in 2016, is trying to export his approach across the country, Semafor reported on Wednesday.Day is steering as much as $2.5 million, maybe less if it works, thr…
Raw Story · Yesterday- Will Republicans or Democrats win the Senate? These key midterm races will decide.
Control of both chambers of Congress is up for grabs in November's election. But as important as the House of Representatives is, all signs point to the true drama of the midterms being in the battle for the Senate. There are 35 Senate seats on the ballot thi…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 13, 2026 
Amid Blue-Wave Panic, Republicans Still Hopeful About New HampshireNew Hampshire Senate race has become one to watch, as John Sununu tries to outrun Donald Trump’s unpopularity
Time · October 5, 2026
How Worried Should Dems Be About the GOP’s Huge Cash Advantage?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?Late Wednesday nig…
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Just How Bad Will Trump’s New Labor Secretary Be?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington On Wednesday, a party line vote of 47–41 confirmed Keith Sonderling as the head o…
The New Republic · October 1, 2026
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The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Chris Pappas (D), with roughly a 93% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+6.1.
What do the polls say in the New Hampshire Senate race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from The New York Times/Siena University (2026-09-22), showed D+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+6.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 New Hampshire Senate race?
Chris Pappas is the Democratic candidate; John Sununu is the Republican.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 New Hampshire Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Chris Pappas's (D) lead has widened to 93%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the New Hampshire Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.