Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 7 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+3.3 — a 62% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
New Hampshire becomes the Senate midterms’ sleeper raceThe News Democrats are dreaming of taking over the Senate and winning in red states from Iowa to Alaska. Chris Pappas wants to make sure they don’t forget about New Hampshire. Pappas, a four-term congressman, is the party’s consensus candidate to succeed reti…
Biztoc.com · June 29, 2026
‘Backrooms’ producer hosts glitzy Dem fundraiser ahead of midterms — with an A-list emceeChernin and his wife Megan hosted over 100 guests, including Damon and Heidi Lindelof among others at their home to support the political campaigns of Texas’ James Talarico, New Hampshire’s Chris Pappas, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and Alaska’s Mary Peltola.
Page Six · June 17, 2026
Iconic strategist drops blunt reminder to Dems about key state: 'It's a warning sign'Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville is raising urgent warnings about the New Hampshire Senate race, saying it demands far more attention than it's currently receiving."What I'm seeing in New Hampshire right now is keeping me up at night — and it sh…
Raw Story · May 10, 2026
Democrat Chris Pappas in dead heat with John Sununu in New Hampshire Senate raceA new poll shows Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu locked in a statistical tie in New Hampshire’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Advocate.com · March 27, 2026
Pete Buttigieg campaigns for Chris Pappas in New HampshireButtigieg made the rounds Thursday at the Puritan Backroom in support of the U.S. Senate campaign of U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas.
WMUR Manchester · February 19, 2026
- Sen. Kennedy Predicts Schumer Shutdown Before Midterms
While campaigning in New Hampshire for U.S. Senate candidate John Sununu, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he expects another federal government shutdown in September, in order to give Democrats an advantage in the November midterm elections. Kennedy told repor…
Freerepublic.com · June 15, 2026 
Sen. Kennedy Predicts Schumer Shutdown Before MidtermsWhile campaigning in New Hampshire for U.S. Senate candidate John Sununu, Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said he expects another federal government shutdown in September, in order to give Democrats an advantage in the November midterm elections. Kennedy told repor…
Daily Signal · June 15, 2026- Iconic strategist drops blunt reminder to Dems about key state: 'It's a warning sign'
Legendary Democratic strategist James Carville is raising urgent warnings about the New Hampshire Senate race, saying it demands far more attention than it's currently receiving."What I'm seeing in New Hampshire right now is keeping me up at night — and it sh…
Raw Story · May 10, 2026 
Nepo Pol Tells Hugh Hewitt He Would Put Medicare Seniors To WorkWell, the millionaire son of a millionaire family really might believe seniors should be put to work. After all, the last time he served in the U.S. Senate, he led efforts to privatize Social Security, which no one except wealthy donors wanted. (Odds are, he'…
Crooksandliars.com · May 1, 2026- Democrat Chris Pappas in dead heat with John Sununu in New Hampshire Senate race
A new poll shows Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu locked in a statistical tie in New Hampshire’s 2026 U.S. Senate race.
Advocate.com · March 27, 2026
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Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Anselm | 2026-06-25 | 1614 | D+6.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-06-23 | 2232 | D+3.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-04-21 | 1295 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-23 | 1100 | D+1.6 |
| Saint Anselm | 2026-03-18 | 1491 | D+3.0 |
| yes. every kid. | 2026-01-29 | 563 | D+4.0 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-01-19 | 2038 | D+5.0 |