VotePredictor
past elections

Hawaii House

Neil Abercrombie (D) vs Gene Ward (R)

Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+14.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Ward ResearchD+15.010.2
2Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategyD+14.011.2

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Ward Research1998-10-22272D+15.010
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy1998-10-18221D+14.011