Actual result
D+25.2
Final polls said
D+14.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | D+15.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+14.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ward Research | 1998-10-22 | 272 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-18 | 221 | D+14.0 | 11 |