Actual result
R+2.9
Final polls said
R+11.9
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+3.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Richard Day Research | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | KRC Research | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Market Shares Corp. | R+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of Illinois at Chicago | R+17.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | WCIA-TV | R+17.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+19.0 | 16.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Illinois Wesleyan University Department of Political Science | R+22.0 | 19.1 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 847 | R+19.0 | 16 |
| Zogby Analytics | 1998-10-28 | 703 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Richard Day Research | 1998-10-26 | 712 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-25 | 813 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 1209 | R+14.0 | 11 |
| Illinois Wesleyan University Department of Political Science | 1998-10-19 | 423 | R+22.0 | 19 |
| KRC Research | 1998-10-19 | 400 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 1998-10-19 | 1099 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| University of Illinois at Chicago | 1998-10-15 | 597 | R+17.0 | 14 |
| WCIA-TV | 1998-10-14 | 401 | R+17.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-11 | 830 | R+12.0 | 9 |
| Richard Day Research | 1998-10-09 | 905 | R+14.0 | 11 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 1998-10-05 | 1099 | R+13.0 | 10 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 1998-09-21 | 1102 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-13 | 811 | R+9.0 | 6 |
| KRC Research | 1998-09-09 | 400 | R+15.0 | 12 |