Actual result
D+28.9
Final polls said
D+30.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harris Insights & Analytics | D+31.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+25.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-30 | 977 | D+31.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 819 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 1998-10-20 | 831 | D+36.0 | 7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-06 | 808 | D+18.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-21 | 819 | D+25.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-13 | 817 | D+23.0 | 6 |