Actual result
R+0.6
Final polls said
EVEN
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+1.0 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | Louisville Courier-Journal | D+1.0 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | TMR Research | D+5.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Baselice & Associates | R+8.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 1998-11-01 | 700 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 823 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 1998-10-22 | 589 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| TMR Research | 1998-10-18 | 800 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-29 | 813 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 1998-09-27 | 575 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Baselice & Associates | 1998-09-09 | 500 | R+8.0 | 7 |