Kentucky Senate
Andy Barr (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Kentucky Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 16 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+16.5 — a 100% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
- EXCLUSIVE: Charles Booker On Whether Dems Have Earned the Black Vote
Ahead of midterm, Charles Booker, the U.S. Senate Democratic nominee in Kentucky, sits down with The Root with a message Black folks need to hear.Read more...
The Root · October 17, 2026 
The Race to Replace Mitch McConnell: Latest Polls, Odds as Senator ReturnsKentucky Senator Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate this week following a months-long absence, as Democrat Charles Booker seeks to defeat Republican Representative Andy Barr to flip the seat in the traditionally conservative state. McConnell suffered a fa…
Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026
McConnell Returns to Congress—After 3 Months of Paid Leave With Taxpayer-Subsidized HealthcareFormer US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell finally came back to the Capitol on Monday after a three-month absence that fueled calls for the Kentucky Republican's resignation and widespread speculation over whether he was even still alive. The 84-year-ol…
Common Dreams · September 14, 2026
Charles Booker's Chances of Flipping Kentucky Seat Amid McConnell AbsenceDemocratic Senate nominee Charles Booker is running behind Republican Andy Barr in Kentucky's open Senate race, according to the latest available polling, even as the seat's incumbent, retiring Senator Mitch McConnell, remains absent from Washington amid unre…
Biztoc.com · September 9, 2026
Crucial deadline in Mitch McConnell saga set to trigger never-before-tested lawUnder a never-before-tested Kentucky law, Monday could be the last chance to call a special election before the midterms to fill the seat widely believed to have been effectively left vacant by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for more than a month.As an apparent …
Raw Story · August 3, 2026
Conservatives demand competition — except in their own primariesConservatives say they believe in competition. So why on earth do we tolerate a political system in which one man effectively picks our candidates before voters have a chance to examine them?Friedrich Hayek understood why monopoly is dangerous: “Our freedom o…
TheBlaze · October 21, 2026
Rep. Andy Barr earns endorsements from Kentucky police, firefighter groups in U.S. Senate bidRep. Andy Barr earns endorsements from Kentucky police, firefighter groups in U.S. Senate bidwlwt.com
WLWT Cincinnati · October 20, 2026- The Race to Replace Mitch McConnell: Latest Polls, Odds as Senator Returns
Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell returned to the Senate this week following a months-long absence, as Democrat Charles Booker seeks to defeat Republican Representative Andy Barr to flip the seat in the traditionally conservative state. McConnell suffered a fa…
Biztoc.com · September 15, 2026 - McConnell Returns to Congress—After 3 Months of Paid Leave With Taxpayer-Subsidized Healthcare
Former US Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell finally came back to the Capitol on Monday after a three-month absence that fueled calls for the Kentucky Republican's resignation and widespread speculation over whether he was even still alive. The 84-year-ol…
Common Dreams · September 14, 2026 
Republican who wanted to rename highway after Trump caught erasing him off campaign siteAnother Republican who spent his primary wrapping himself in Donald Trump has quietly peeled the president off his campaign website, this time in a red-leaning Florida seat.Casey Askar, the GOP nominee in Florida's redrawn 22nd Congressional District, ran the…
Raw Story · September 11, 2026
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The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Kentucky Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Andy Barr (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+16.5.
What do the polls say in the Kentucky Senate race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Global Strategy Group (2026-08-27), showed R+9.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+16.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Kentucky Senate race?
Charles Booker is the Democratic candidate; Andy Barr is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Kentucky Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Kentucky Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Andy Barr's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Kentucky Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.