Actual result
R+39.6
Final polls said
R+40.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+40.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Research Group | R+37.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | R+45.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-28 | 627 | R+40.0 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 1998-09-09 | 634 | R+37.0 | 3 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 1998-09-09 | 494 | R+45.0 | 5 |