Actual result
D+0.1
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 0.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | D+5.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-10-26 | 817 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| FM3 Research | 1998-10-12 | 488 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 1998-09-27 | 500 | EVEN | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 1998-09-27 | 814 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| FM3 Research | 1998-09-22 | 600 | D+7.0 | 7 |