Actual result
R+15.2
Final polls said
R+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | R+16.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Craciun Research Group | D+3.0 | 18.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Lake Research Partners/Ivan Moore | D+3.0 | 18.1 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moore Information Group | 2002-10-15 | 300 | R+16.0 | 1 |
| Craciun Research Group | 2002-10-12 | 400 | D+3.0 | 18 |
| Lake Research Partners/Ivan Moore | 2002-09-17 | 500 | D+3.0 | 18 |