Alaska Governor
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Alaska Governor race — about a 89% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+5.9 — a 89% Democratic win.
Latest news
Mary Peltola Leads in Alaska Senate RaceA new New York Times/Siena poll in Alaska finds Mary Peltola (D) leading Dan Sullivan (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 43%. Alaska Senate Race Mary Peltola (D) 50% Dan Sullivan (R) 43% New York Times/Siena poll · likely voters The same poll in Alaska f…
Politicalwire.com · October 3, 2026
Democrats aim to unite behind one candidate in Alaska governor's raceDemocrat Tom Begich has withdrawn from Alaska’s governor's race and is supporting the first-place finisher, fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Abcnews.com · September 1, 2026
Democrats aim to unite behind one candidate in Alaska governor's race as they hope to flip the seatDemocrat Tom Begich has withdrawn from Alaska’s governor's race and is supporting the first-place finisher, fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Abcnews.com · September 1, 2026
Alaska Democrats unite behind one candidate in bid to flip long-lost governor’s seatDemocrat Tom Begich withdrew from Alaska's governor's race on Monday. He endorsed fellow Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate party efforts. This move aims to win a governor's seat not held by Democrats for decades. Republicans face their own ballo…
The Times of India · September 1, 2026- One Democrat to Face Three Republicans for Alaska Governor
Two Democrats and two Republicans have taken the top spots in Alaska’s crowded open primary for governor, according to The Associated Press. But the ballot this fall will reflect a different reality in a state that leans red, yet offers what Democrats believe…
Freerepublic.com · August 29, 2026
Alaska school district erases Veterans Day from official calendar: ‘absolutely unacceptable’Alaska GOP candidate Bernadette Wilson slams Anchorage School District for removing Veterans Day from calendar, calling it 'woke indoctrination.'
Fox News · December 7, 2025
Former talk radio host dials into Alaska’s race for governor, says energy is keyBernadette Wilson joins an increasingly crowded governor's race that also includes Sen. Click Bishop and Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, all Republicans.
Fox News · May 15, 2025
Groups in US State Get Creative to Help Voters With Election ChangesDrag performers shimmied up and down a walkway between café tables, as enthusiastic patrons took photos, waved cash and filled out ballots ranking the shows. The mock election, fueled by performances that brought the din of an Anchorage, Alaska, café to a r…
VOA News · August 13, 2022- She kept an old neon sign full of dead pigeons. The federal government wants it back.
A judge will decide who gets to keep an old neon palm tree sign that stood in front of a now-derelict hotel in Anchorage, Alaska. A federal worker had told Bernadette Wilson, who owns a garbage disposal company, to get rid of the tree but she kept it instead.…
Miami Herald · March 9, 2018
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), with roughly a 89% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+5.9.
What do the polls say in the Alaska Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from The New York Times/Siena University (2026-10-01), showed D+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+5.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alaska Governor race?
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the Democratic candidate; Bernadette Wilson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alaska Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alaska Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.