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Likely D · 2026 Governor

Alaska Governor

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Alaska Governor race — about a 89% chance, winning by about 6 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
89%
(R) Bernadette Wilson
12%
Chance of winning the seatPredicted margin D+5.9

How the odds moved

MarMayJulSep

VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+5.9 — a 89% Democratic win.

Latest news

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D)
Bernadette Wilson (R)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

The polls behind it

3 polls · newest first
PollsterDateMargin
The New York Times/Siena University2026-10-01D+4.0
Cygnal2026-09-27D+20.0
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research2026-09-11D+10.0

Frequently asked questions

Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Governor race?

VotePredictor's model favors Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D), with roughly a 89% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+5.9.

What do the polls say in the Alaska Governor race?

There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from The New York Times/Siena University (2026-10-01), showed D+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+5.9.

Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alaska Governor race?

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is the Democratic candidate; Bernadette Wilson is the Republican.

When is the 2026 Alaska Governor election?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.

How does VotePredictor forecast the Alaska Governor race?

It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.

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