Actual result
D+7.8
Final polls said
D+11.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+7.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Market Research Institute Inc. | D+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | D+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | MarketAide Services Inc. | D+19.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-01 | 704 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-29 | 625 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-26 | 704 | D+15.0 | 7 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2002-10-26 | 602 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| MarketAide Services Inc. | 2002-10-19 | 402 | D+19.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-12 | 704 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2002-10-06 | 500 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-05 | 704 | D+18.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-28 | 704 | D+20.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-14 | 704 | D+17.0 | 9 |