Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
D+15.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+19.0 | 13.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+21.0 | 15.3 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-10-26 | 500 | D+21.0 | 15 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-10-25 | 300 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-09-19 | 500 | D+29.0 | 23 |
| Digital Research | 2002-09-19 | 509 | D+19.0 | 13 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-09-09 | 523 | D+31.0 | 25 |