Maine Governor
Nirav Shah (D) is favored to win the 2026 Maine Governor race — about a 84% chance, winning by about 16 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+15.7 — a 84% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Michigan Primary: How Standing Up to Israeli Genocide Could Win Democrats Congress in NovemberAt 2 a.m. Michigan time early Wednesday morning, NBC projected that AIPAC's preferred candidate was on her way to look for a new job. US Rep. Haley Stevens' defeat in Michigan's Democratic Senate primary is the last nail in AIPAC's coffin. The once-feared I…
Common Dreams · August 5, 2026
Leading Collins in New Poll, Jackson Says Maine Can't Afford 6 More Years of GOP Senator's 'Concern'With three days to go until Maine's statewide convention, where delegates will officially nominate the Democratic US Senate candidate who will face Republican Sen. Susan Collins, presumptive nominee Troy Jackson is hitting the ground running—denouncing Collin…
Common Dreams · July 22, 2026
Three Keys to a Democratic Victory in MaineEditor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · July 21, 2026- Ex-logger Troy Jackson set to succeed Graham Platner as Dem pick in Maine Senate race (selected)
WASHINGTON — Former logger and onetime Maine Senate President Troy Jackson is on course to replace accused rapist Graham Platner as the Democratic Senate nominee following a series of party caucuses over the weekend. As results from the Pine Tree State’s 16 c…
Freerepublic.com · July 20, 2026 
Troy Jackson Is On a Path to Become Senate Nominee“Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson may have effectively clinched the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Maine,” NOTUS reports. “His position strengthened Sunday as two rivals, former state Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nira…
Politicalwire.com · July 20, 2026
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The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Maine Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Nirav Shah (D), with roughly a 84% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+15.7.
What do the polls say in the Maine Governor race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from The Public Sentiment Institute (2026-06-08), showed D+16.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+15.7.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Maine Governor race?
Nirav Shah is the Democratic candidate; Robert Charles is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Maine Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Maine Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.