Maine Governor
Hannah Pingree (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Maine Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 12 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 15 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 15 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+12.3 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Troy Jackson Has Edge in Maine Senate RaceA new AARP Maine poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) leading Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 47%. Maine Senate Race Troy Jackson (D) 50% Susan Collins (R) 47% AARP Maine poll · likely voters The same poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (…
Politicalwire.com · October 1, 2026
'Atom bomb' drops in massive race as Republican's sister turns on him in surprise op-edJust two weeks after Maine gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles drew national headlines with his comments about sending immigration agents to polling stations, the Republican’s sister publicly explained why she won’t be voting for him in November, calling ou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026
'Atom Bomb Dropped' in Maine Gubernatorial Race as Bobby Charles' Sister Backs His Democratic OpponentJust two weeks after Maine gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles drew national headlines with his comments about sending immigration agents to polling stations, the Republican's sister publicly explained why she won't be voting for him in November, calling ou…
Common Dreams · September 9, 2026- 'I'm Going to Ask Tom': Maine GOP Nominee for Governor Calls for ICE at Polling Stations
By letting attendees at a Maine Young Republicans event in on his "secret" plan for the midterm elections, the state's Republican nominee for governor detailed a proposal that, according to one public policy think tank, is wholly illegal. In an audio clip rel…
Common Dreams · August 27, 2026 
'We Must Pass Medicare for All,' Says Troy Jackson as 12th Maine Maternity Unit Closes in 11 YearsDemocratic US Senate candidate Troy Jackson on Friday was among the Maine leaders expressing anger over the decision by MaineHealth, the state's largest nonprofit healthcare system, to close a labor and delivery unit that's crucial to families in three counti…
Common Dreams · August 7, 2026
The One Issue the Midterm Victors Must Solve? CorruptionOne of the most potent midterm election slogans was offered by the Republicans in 1946: “HAD ENOUGH?” The GOP swept into power after years of New Deal dominance.We like to say that what counts is not what you are against, but what you are for. Not always, tho…
brennancenter.org · October 7, 2026- Troy Jackson Has Edge in Maine Senate Race
A new AARP Maine poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) leading Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 47%. Maine Senate Race Troy Jackson (D) 50% Susan Collins (R) 47% AARP Maine poll · likely voters The same poll in Maine finds Hannah Pingree (…
Politicalwire.com · October 1, 2026 
Trump Unveils Midterms Travel Plan That Will Surely Make Him Pass OutDonald Trump is planning to hit the campaign trail for 32 days before the midterm elections.That would put the president on the campaign trail for more than 94 percent of the time between now and November 3, effectively placing Trump at the center of an elect…
The New Republic · September 30, 2026
Susan Collins endorses GOP governor nominee Bobby Charles in Maine raceCollins's endorsement may shift voter dynamics, affecting moderate support and potentially altering Maine's political landscape and future races. The post Susan Collins endorses GOP governor nominee Bobby Charles in Maine race appeared first on Crypto Briefin…
Crypto Briefing · September 16, 2026- 'Atom bomb' drops in massive race as Republican's sister turns on him in surprise op-ed
Just two weeks after Maine gubernatorial candidate Bobby Charles drew national headlines with his comments about sending immigration agents to polling stations, the Republican’s sister publicly explained why she won’t be voting for him in November, calling ou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Maine Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Hannah Pingree (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+12.3.
What do the polls say in the Maine Governor race?
There are 15 polls of this race. The most recent, from Marist University (2026-10-04), showed D+12.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+12.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Maine Governor race?
Hannah Pingree is the Democratic candidate; Bobby Charles is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Maine Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Maine Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Hannah Pingree's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Maine Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.