Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+15.7 — a 84% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
'Leave us the hell alone!' Dem bigwigs warned of catastrophe if they swarm into MaineWASHINGTON — Progressives in Maine may be feeling duped as the state’s Democratic Party scrambles to replace former U.S. Senate candidate Graham Platner, but nine-term Democratic Rep. Chellie Pingree says that doesn’t mean the state party needs help from the …
Raw Story · Today
A New Poll Shows a Tight Fight for Platner Replacements“A poll of potential replacements for Graham Platner, who dropped out of the Maine Senate race on Wednesday, found a trio of former gubernatorial candidates in tight head-to-head battles against Republican Sen. Susan Collins,” NOTUS reports. “The statewide po…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
Former Maine official considers how to replace PlatnerNPR's Mary Louise Kelly speaks with Nirav Shah, a former Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Maine, about what's next following Graham Platner's expected departure from the state's U.S. Senate race.
NPR · July 8, 2026
Platner Campaign Accuses Maine Dems of Plotting Replacement Process 'Behind Closed Doors'Graham Platner's campaign manager on Wednesday accused the Maine Democratic Party of coordinating with national Democrats "behind closed doors" and cutting the embattled US Senate nominee's supporters out of the process to determine his potential replacement …
Common Dreams · July 8, 2026
Democrats want a Platner replacementDemocrats are expecting their Senate nominee in Maine to end his campaign and let the state party replace him, after a woman who dated Graham Platner accused him of sexual assault and state Democrats and most of his endorsers urged him to quit. Sources close …
Biztoc.com · July 7, 2026
Yemen Press Reader 540a: | Jemenkrieg-Mosaik 540a- Yemen War Mosaic 540a28. Mai 2019:US-Waffen trafen Krankenhäuser im Jemen – Daniele Ganser: Der illegale Krieg im Jemen 2015 – Keine Löhne und Gehälter, die schlimmste wirtschaftliche Krise.. Eingebetteter Medieninhalt... Was das Scheitern der Gespräche in Amman für Jemen bedeute…
Freitag.de · May 28, 2019- Yemen Press Reader 536a: | Jemenkrieg-Mosaik 536a- Yemen War Mosaic 536a
11. Mai 2019: Kampf der Parlamente, Jemen im April 2019 – Ramadan: Hunger, Teuerung, verdorbene Hilfsgüter – Sanaa: Luftangriff am 7. April traf Explosivmaterial-Depot... Eingebetteter Medieninhalt Eingebetteter Medieninhalt... Geldzuwendungen verbessern Ernä…
Freitag.de · May 11, 2019
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Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute | 2026-06-08 | 497 | D+16.0 |