Actual result
R+46.2
Final polls said
R+39.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+44.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+35.0 | 11.2 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-28 | 523 | R+35.0 | 11 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 625 | R+44.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-14 | 666 | R+36.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-23 | 561 | R+35.0 | 11 |