Actual result
D+0.7
Final polls said
D+0.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Consumer Logic | R+6.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+8.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-02 | 710 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-30 | 723 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-15 | 710 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Consumer Logic | 2002-10-11 | 750 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-07 | 666 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-01 | 555 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-25 | 710 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2002-09-23 | 500 | R+8.0 | 9 |