Oklahoma Governor
Mike Mazzei (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor race — about a 95% chance, winning by about 7 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+7.3 — a 95% Republican win.
Latest news
Mike Mazzei, Cyndi Munson weigh teacher pay raises in Oklahoma governor raceOklahoma's two major-party gubernatorial candidates both say teacher pay has to go up — but each admits it won't be easy.
KOCO Oklahoma City · October 21, 2026
Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?When people talk about this year's midterms, they tend to focus on whether Democrats will end unified Republican control of Congress by winning the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives (or both). And that makes sense: Congress has the power to check Presid…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 15, 2026
Trump and Vance head to GOP strongholds, looking to give Republicans a midterm boostWASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance will both hit the campaign trail on Thursday, but they will be heading to heavily Republican areas to shore up lagging enthusiasm in their party ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Tru…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 1, 2026
Oklahoma governor Republican runoff goes down to the wireThe runoff for the Republican nomination for governor in Oklahoma was about as close as it gets, but in the end, the candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump prevailed.On Tuesday, former state Sen. Mike Mazzei faced off against state Attorney General Gent…
TheBlaze · August 26, 2026
Trump-Backed Mike Mazzei's Chances of Beating Cyndi Munson In OklahomaRepublican Mike Mazzei is the overwhelming favorite to defeat Democrat Cyndi Munson in Oklahoma’s gubernatorial election, according to two prediction markets, after emerging from a closely fought GOP primary runoff. Mazzei, a businessman and former state sena…
Biztoc.com · August 26, 2026
- Mike Mazzei, Cyndi Munson weigh teacher pay raises in Oklahoma governor race
Oklahoma's two major-party gubernatorial candidates both say teacher pay has to go up — but each admits it won't be easy.
KOCO Oklahoma City · October 21, 2026 - Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?
When people talk about this year's midterms, they tend to focus on whether Democrats will end unified Republican control of Congress by winning the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives (or both). And that makes sense: Congress has the power to check Presid…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 15, 2026 
‘Foul mood’ Trump turns midterm rally blitz into logistical nightmare: reportPresident Donald Trump has been in a “foul mood” as he crisscrosses the country for midterm rallies this month, one insider told The Washington Post, and his aversion to sleeping anywhere but his own properties has turned the trips into a logistical headache …
Raw Story · October 12, 2026- Trump and Vance head to GOP strongholds, looking to give Republicans a midterm boost
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance will both hit the campaign trail on Thursday, but they will be heading to heavily Republican areas to shore up lagging enthusiasm in their party ahead of next month’s midterm elections. Tru…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 1, 2026 
Trump Threatens NBC's Welker With 'Punishment' for Doing Her JobPresident Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday to threaten NBC journalist Kristen Welker with "rebuke or punishment" from the Federal Communications Commission, or FCC, after she accurately reported that his endorsement had netted "mixed" results for R…
Common Dreams · August 30, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source.The VotePredictor margin is the poll after correcting for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Oklahoma Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Mike Mazzei (R), with roughly a 95% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+7.3.
What do the polls say in the Oklahoma Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from Workbench Strategy (2026-10-13), showed R+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+7.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Oklahoma Governor race?
Cyndi Munson is the Democratic candidate; Mike Mazzei is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Oklahoma Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Oklahoma Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.