Actual result
D+2.9
Final polls said
D+5.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Riley Research Associates | D+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | D+6.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | 2002-10-27 | 608 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2002-10-25 | 604 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2002-10-16 | 604 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| DHM Research | 2002-10-04 | 608 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2002-09-25 | 600 | D+6.0 | 3 |