Actual result
R+13.3
Final polls said
R+11.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciruli Associates | R+17.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | R+5.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-12 | 400 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2002-09-30 | 400 | R+5.0 | 8 |