Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+1.0 | 1.1 | ✗ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ciruli Associates | R+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2002-10-30 | 300 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2002-10-14 | 400 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2002-10-12 | 403 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2002-10-07 | 404 | EVEN | 0 |