Actual result
R+8.2
Final polls said
R+8.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Connecticut | R+5.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Connecticut | 2002-11-02 | 376 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-10-27 | 624 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-09-21 | 520 | R+22.0 | 14 |