Actual result
R+11.0
Final polls said
R+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Connecticut | R+17.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+18.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | GQR | EVEN | 11.0 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Connecticut | 2002-10-28 | 642 | R+17.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2002-10-10 | 398 | R+18.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2002-10-06 | 400 | EVEN | 11 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-10-04 | 404 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| University of Connecticut | 2002-09-11 | 502 | R+5.0 | 6 |