Actual result
R+10.4
Final polls said
R+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+15.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2002-10-22 | 402 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| Tarrance Group | 2002-09-18 | 513 | EVEN | 10 |