Actual result
D+9.0
Final polls said
D+5.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory | D+9.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+5.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | TeleResearch Corporation | D+14.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | D+1.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-10-29 | 400 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Indiana University Public Opinion Laboratory | 2002-10-24 | 506 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-02 | 300 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| TeleResearch Corporation | 2002-09-23 | 321 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-09-22 | 400 | D+4.0 | 5 |