Actual result
R+23.6
Final polls said
R+13.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+17.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-29 | 518 | R+17.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-19 | 518 | R+9.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-21 | 741 | R+11.0 | 13 |