VotePredictor
past elections

Kansas House

Carlos J. Nolla (D) vs Todd Tiahrt (R)

Actual result
R+23.6
Final polls said
R+13.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1SurveyUSAR+17.06.6

Polls (3)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
SurveyUSA2002-10-29518R+17.07
SurveyUSA2002-10-19518R+9.015
SurveyUSA2002-09-21741R+11.013