Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+6.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+10.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-30 | 707 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2002-10-28 | 671 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-23 | 707 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-16 | 707 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-02 | 442 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-12 | 665 | R+3.0 | 0 |