Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | D+1.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Digital Research | D+9.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+10.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+12.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+6.0 | 10.0 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-10-26 | 240 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-10-25 | 302 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-09 | 400 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2002-09-22 | 400 | D+12.0 | 8 |
| Digital Research | 2002-09-19 | 302 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-09-19 | 240 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-09-09 | 311 | D+4.0 | 0 |