Actual result
R+19.6
Final polls said
R+11.6
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+11.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Becker Institute | R+8.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | R+7.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+6.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Lake Research Partners | D+2.0 | 21.6 | ✗ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2002-11-02 | 300 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-11-01 | 305 | R+6.0 | 14 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2002-10-29 | 466 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-29 | 300 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-26 | 316 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| Becker Institute | 2002-10-22 | 200 | R+8.0 | 12 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-21 | 300 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-15 | 300 | R+19.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-05 | 316 | R+13.0 | 7 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2002-09-17 | 500 | D+2.0 | 22 |
| American Research Group | 2002-09-16 | 300 | R+7.0 | 13 |