Actual result
R+15.9
Final polls said
R+19.0
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | R+19.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | American Research Group | R+22.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Becker Institute | R+22.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+30.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2002-11-02 | 300 | R+22.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-11-01 | 335 | R+30.0 | 14 |
| Tarrance Group | 2002-10-29 | 300 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-29 | 300 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2002-10-26 | 468 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-26 | 309 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Becker Institute | 2002-10-22 | 200 | R+22.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-21 | 300 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-15 | 300 | R+21.0 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-05 | 309 | R+22.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2002-09-16 | 300 | R+18.0 | 2 |