Actual result
R+18.8
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+9.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+1.0 | 17.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 305 | R+10.0 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-18 | 400 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| PSB Research | 2002-09-06 | 612 | R+1.0 | 18 |