Actual result
D+22.6
Final polls said
D+19.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fleming & Associates | D+21.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | D+17.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleming & Associates | 2002-10-28 | 250 | D+21.0 | 2 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2002-10-20 | 194 | D+17.0 | 6 |