Actual result
R+7.9
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | R+5.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-26 | 805 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | 2002-10-21 | 600 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Jim Meader (KELOLAND-TV) | 2002-10-04 | 600 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-18 | 800 | R+7.0 | 1 |