Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
D+3.0
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+2.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Marketing Workshop | D+5.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 12.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | EMC Research | D+12.0 | 18.8 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 600 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-01 | 600 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Marketing Workshop | 2002-10-27 | 800 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-16 | 625 | D+6.0 | 13 |
| EMC Research | 2002-10-10 | 800 | D+12.0 | 19 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-10-03 | 679 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-30 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 11 |
| Marketing Workshop | 2002-09-28 | 800 | D+9.0 | 16 |