Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff (D) is favored to win the 2026 Georgia Senate race — about a 80% chance, winning by about 7 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 17 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 17 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+7.2 — a 80% Democratic win.
Latest news
Trump's 'staggering' collapse amazes DC insiders: 'Didn't think I'd ever see that'Two longtime Washington, DC insiders could not contain their amazement that President Donald Trump is viewed favorably in only three states in the union.On MS NOW’s “Morning Joe," co-host Joe Scarborough, a former GOP lawmaker, and Democratic strategist Jenni…
Raw Story · Today
What Jon Ossoff Gets That Far Too Many Democrats Don’tThere’s a new Democratic presidential frontrunner, according to the Kalshi prediction markets at least. Over the weekend, Jon Ossoff claimed first place (whatever exactly that means on Kalshi), at 18 percent, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17 percent…
The New Republic · Today- Ossoff insists he won’t run in 2028. The presidential buzz is growing anyway
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) insists he has “zero interest” in running for president in 2028, but a growing corner of the Democratic internet is acting as though he may not get the final say. The Georgia Democrat’s national profile has surged in recent weeks as cli…
Freerepublic.com · Yesterday 
'Feminine theatre kid cosplaying Obama': Democrats tell me Jon Ossoff is their beacon of hope. Too bad he has one glaring issue: MARK HALPERINIn the absence of a clear frontrunner for the Democratic Party's 2028 nomination, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has been pushed to the surface.
Dailymail.com · Yesterday
- What Jon Ossoff Gets That Far Too Many Democrats Don’t
There’s a new Democratic presidential frontrunner, according to the Kalshi prediction markets at least. Over the weekend, Jon Ossoff claimed first place (whatever exactly that means on Kalshi), at 18 percent, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 17 percent…
The New Republic · Today 
Dem’s ‘sexist’ remark against cancer survivor provokes Republican to go scorched earth: ‘Guy’s got a problem’Republican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Collins calls Jon Ossoff's viral remark about White House aide Natalie Harp "sexist" and "misogynistic."
Fox News · August 20, 2026
Jon Ossoff's Chances of Losing to Republican Mike Collins in Georgia—PollDemocratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a 7-point lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins in the latest poll of the Georgia Senate race, a key race in a state that President Donald Trump won in 2024, which Democrats must defend if they hope to take contr…
Biztoc.com · August 19, 2026
Poll Shows Far-Left Sen. Jon Ossoff Leading Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia Senate RaceFar-left incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is leading Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) in the Georgia U.S. Senate race, new polling shows. The post Poll Shows Far-Left Sen. Jon Ossoff Leading Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia Senate Race appeared first on Breitbart.
Breitbart News · August 19, 2026
Crowd erupts as Trump foe mocks his MAGA 'scandal piñata' opponentGeorgia Senate candidate and Trump foe Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) took a swipe at Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) that got laughs from a crowd on Tuesday.Ossoff and Collins are vying to represent Georgia in the Senate. During a campaign event in Columbus, Georgia, joine…
Raw Story · August 18, 2026
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The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Georgia Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jon Ossoff (D), with roughly a 80% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+7.2.
What do the polls say in the Georgia Senate race?
There are 17 polls of this race. The most recent, from 270toWin[97] (2026-08-18), showed D+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+7.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Georgia Senate race?
Jon Ossoff is the Democratic candidate; Mike Collins is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Georgia Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Georgia Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Jon Ossoff's (D) lead has widened to 80%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Georgia Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.