Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Georgia Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 5 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 5 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+9.5 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
First Georgia Senate debate spotlights fight over Trump, Biden-era policiesDemocrat Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican Rep. Mike Collins squared off in the first debate in this nationally consequential Senate race, with both trying to hit the other for policies implemented by the current and former president.
NBC News · Today
'It's always in red states': Closing-stretch spending spree demonstrates GOP panicRepublicans are spending heavily in states that should be safe for them with less than a month left before the midterms, a sign of how worried the party is about the Nov. 3 election, according to new reporting.Republican super PACs are buying ads in states Pr…
Raw Story · Yesterday
MAGA candidate's scandal-plagued staff linked to former Klan leader: reportTwo county-level organizers for Georgia Senate candidate Mike Collins have ties to a far-right group started by a former Ku Klux Klan leader, according to a Daily Beast exclusive, adding to the controversies around the Trump-endorsed Republican.The group, Ame…
Raw Story · October 7, 2026
The One Issue the Midterm Victors Must Solve? CorruptionOne of the most potent midterm election slogans was offered by the Republicans in 1946: “HAD ENOUGH?” The GOP swept into power after years of New Deal dominance.We like to say that what counts is not what you are against, but what you are for. Not always, tho…
brennancenter.org · October 7, 2026
Transcript: Trump Spirals into Fury as GOP Pollsters Deliver Bad NewsThe following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 7 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.Donald Trum…
The New Republic · October 7, 2026
- First Georgia Senate debate spotlights fight over Trump, Biden-era policies
Democrat Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican Rep. Mike Collins squared off in the first debate in this nationally consequential Senate race, with both trying to hit the other for policies implemented by the current and former president.
NBC News · Today - 'It's always in red states': Closing-stretch spending spree demonstrates GOP panic
Republicans are spending heavily in states that should be safe for them with less than a month left before the midterms, a sign of how worried the party is about the Nov. 3 election, according to new reporting.Republican super PACs are buying ads in states Pr…
Raw Story · Yesterday - MAGA candidate's scandal-plagued staff linked to former Klan leader: report
Two county-level organizers for Georgia Senate candidate Mike Collins have ties to a far-right group started by a former Ku Klux Klan leader, according to a Daily Beast exclusive, adding to the controversies around the Trump-endorsed Republican.The group, Ame…
Raw Story · October 7, 2026 
Trump Candidate Mike Collins' 'Convoy Captains' Tied to Group Founded by Ex-KKK LeaderAffiliates of Georgia candidate Mike Collins have ties to a group he has denounced as a “hate organization.”
Daily Beast · October 7, 2026- Trump Candidate Mike Collins' 'Convoy Captains' Tied to Group Founded by Ex-KKK Leader
Affiliates of Georgia candidate Mike Collins have ties to a group he has denounced as a “hate organization.”
Daily Beast · October 7, 2026
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The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Georgia Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jon Ossoff (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+9.5.
What do the polls say in the Georgia Senate race?
There are 5 polls of this race. The most recent, from Wedgewood Polls (2026-10-03), showed D+10.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+9.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Georgia Senate race?
Jon Ossoff is the Democratic candidate; Mike Collins is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Georgia Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Georgia Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Jon Ossoff's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Georgia Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.