Georgia Senate
Jon Ossoff (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Georgia Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+9.7 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Supreme Court sides with GOP in fight over discounted ads ahead of midtermsBy John Kruzel WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The US Supreme Court again sided with Republicans on Wednesday in the latest clash over a new Federal Communications Commission policy that gives party committees access to discounted TV and radio advertising rate…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday
MAGA candidate's Epstein attack backfires in campaign-defining moment: analysisRepublican Senate hopeful Mike Collins sparred with Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) Tuesday night in their second debate, and during a pivotal moment, attempted to strike a blow against the Senate Democrat over Jeffrey Epstein — an attack that “backfired spectacular…
Raw Story · Yesterday
Dem senator says 'zero interest in running for president' in debate with GOP opponentDemocratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who has repeatedly indicated that he is not interested in running for president in 2028, reiterated his position during a Georgia U.S. Senate debate.
Fox News · Yesterday
Rising Democrat who could shake up 2028 race says he has 'zero interest' in running for presidentJon Ossoff is declaring his Senate win early, ending rumors of running as the Democratic presidential candidate in the 2028 race.
Dailymail.com · Yesterday
Ossoff Makes Mincemeat Of Collins Over Epstein FilesDuring their second debate Tuesday, Georgia U.S. Senate candidate Mike Collins tried to attack his Democratic opponent, Sen. Jon Ossoff, over a campaign donation from venture capitalist Reid Hoffman. Trump has called Hoffman a “sleazebag” and ordered an inves…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday
Sen. John Ossoff again says he won’t run for president in 2028Sen. John Ossoff in a debate in Atlanta on Tuesday made more headlines about what he won’t do in 2028 than he did about his re-election campaign in 2026. Such has long been the case for the Georgia Democrat, who is competing against Republican Rep. Mike Colli…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday- MAGA candidate's Epstein attack backfires in campaign-defining moment: analysis
Republican Senate hopeful Mike Collins sparred with Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) Tuesday night in their second debate, and during a pivotal moment, attempted to strike a blow against the Senate Democrat over Jeffrey Epstein — an attack that “backfired spectacular…
Raw Story · Yesterday 
JD Vance Rallies in Georgia as Early Voting Surges to Record HighA record number of first-day early votes were cast in Georgia for a midterm election, state officials said Wednesday, as Vice President JD Vance arrives to rally for Senate GOP candidate Mike Collins. Georgia's Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said more …
Biztoc.com · Yesterday- Ossoff Makes Mincemeat Of Collins Over Epstein Files
During their second debate Tuesday, Georgia U.S. Senate candidate Mike Collins tried to attack his Democratic opponent, Sen. Jon Ossoff, over a campaign donation from venture capitalist Reid Hoffman. Trump has called Hoffman a “sleazebag” and ordered an inves…
Crooksandliars.com · Yesterday - Ossoff rejects 2028 buzz amid bruising night of Senate debates - Axios
Ossoff rejects 2028 buzz amid bruising night of Senate debatesAxios Trump’s foreign policy, Epstein and corruption allegations loom over Senate debates in Maine, Georgia and IowaCNN Mike Collins Attacks Back: 7 Takeaways From the Second Senate Debate in Georg…
Slashdot.org · Yesterday
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The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Georgia Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jon Ossoff (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+9.7.
What do the polls say in the Georgia Senate race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from FiftyPlusOne (2026-10-09), showed D+9.2. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+9.7.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Georgia Senate race?
Jon Ossoff is the Democratic candidate; Mike Collins is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Georgia Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Georgia Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Jon Ossoff's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Georgia Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.