Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 7 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+6.0 — a 72% Democratic win.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Jon Ossoff’s Chances of Defeating Mike Collins in Georgia Senate Race—PollGeorgia Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff held a narrow lead over Republican Representative Mike Collins, who is hoping to flip the seat back to the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections, in a new poll this week. A Collins spokesperson told Newsweek, “Jon Ossoff is b…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Raphael Warnock Is Fueling 2028 SpeculationGreg Bluestein: “Sen. Jon Ossoff has fueled a wave of speculation about a potential 2028 presidential campaign with his viral rallies and cutting commentary on Republicans.” “But the pundits are focused on the wrong Georgian.” “Sen. Raphael Warnock is the Geo…
Politicalwire.com · Yesterday
The Democrat everyone suddenly wants to believe inSenator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat from Georgia, during a campaign event at The Tabernacle in Atlanta, Georgia, on May 31, 2026. | Ben Hendren/Bloomberg via Getty Images For the past month, one name has dominated discussions of the 2028 Democratic primary: Georg…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Graham Platner Was a Train Wreck—but Playing It Safe Is Not the AnswerThe Graham Platner campaign has collapsed in spectacular fashion, with the upstart candidate suspending his run for Maine senator in a video he released Wednesday night. A woman Platner had dated accusing him of sexual assault effectively ended a candidacy th…
The New Republic · Yesterday- EXCLUSIVE: Senate Democrats’ Partisan Push to Politicize Military Promotions Rejected by Pentagon
A group of seven Senate Democrats, led by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), is again demanding unprecedented details and justifications for Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s personnel and chain of command decisions, including promotion lists. The senators are pressing f…
Freerepublic.com · July 8, 2026
- President Trump Endorses Mike Collins in Georgia Senate Runoff - The New York Times
President Trump Endorses Mike Collins in Georgia Senate RunoffThe New York Times Trump endorses Mike Collins in Georgia Senate runoffThe Washington Post Buddy Carter lost. His voters could decide the GOP runoff for U.S. Senate.AJC.com Republicans vote for sen…
Slashdot.org · June 14, 2026
Bailing House members now regretful as effort to escape chaos ends careers: reportLawmakers fleeing the chaotic House of Representatives for the greener pastures of higher office are finding the doors are shut to them by unimpressed voters, according to a report.Nearly 30 House members have discovered that service in Congress has become a …
Raw Story · June 5, 2026
Transcript: Georgia May Elect America’s First Black Woman GovernorThis is a lightly edited transcript of the May 20 edition of Right Now With Perry Bacon. You can watch the video here or by following this show on YouTube or Substack. This episode is part of Right Now’s ongoing coverage of the midterm elections. Other recent…
The New Republic · May 20, 2026
'Friend' of President Trump advances to Georgia Republican Senate primary runoffThe president likes him "a lot," but Georgia voters still have to prove they agree.Sitting U.S. Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) took home the most votes in the Georgia GOP primary for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, but it was not enough to secure an outright nomination. '…
TheBlaze · May 20, 2026
GOP Rep. Buddy Carter says Republicans need "best player on the field" in Georgia Senate primaryWith less than a week to go before the GOP Georgia Senate primary, an Atlanta-Journal Constitution poll has the majority of voters undecided, making a runoff race in June increasingly likely. One of the candidates, Rep. Buddy Carter, joins "The Takeout" to di…
CBS News · May 14, 2026
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Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[91] | 2026-07-01 | — | D+6.0 |
| Wick | 2026-06-30 | 1175 | D+3.8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-06-27 | 1002 | D+13.0 |
| Race to the WH[58] | 2026-04-09 | — | D+5.8 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 407 | D+7.0 |
| Emerson College | 2026-03-02 | 1000 | D+4.4 |
| RealClearPolitics[91] | 2026-03-02 | — | D+2.8 |