Georgia Governor
The 2026 Georgia Governor race is essentially a toss-up: Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) holds a narrow 53% edge, projected to win by less than a point, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 7 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 7 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+0.8 — a 53% Democratic win.
Latest news
Keisha Lance Bottoms Chances of Defeating GOP to Win Georgia Governor RaceDemocrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are locked in a tight race for Georgia governor, according to a new poll that shows Bottoms narrowly ahead, though the difference is within the poll's margin of error. Democrats hope to reclaim the gov…
Biztoc.com · August 11, 2026
Georgia Candidates Gather at Chamber Luncheon to Discuss Business, Data CentersATHENS, Ga.—On Wednesday, a host of political candidates attended the Chamber of Commerce Congressional Luncheon to discuss initiatives, make pledges, and more. Attendees included U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Mike Collins, gubernatorial candidates Rick Jackson …
Daily Signal · August 7, 2026- Exclusive: Wes Moore Bets on Bi-Partisanship in a Divisive Age
Is bipartisanship a lost art, or have we simply grown too disillusioned with establishment leaders to recognize a bridge-builder when we see one? Near sacred ground in Oklahoma City — blocks from the site of the deadliest act of domestic terrorism on Ameri…
The Root · August 6, 2026 
Jackson Launches Massive $87 Million Ad Blitz Against Keisha Lance Bottoms In Governor’s RaceBy Rebecca Buis via The Daily Signal | August 02, 2026 Georgia gubernatorial candidate and healthcare executive Rick Jackson has launched a massive ad blitz against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. While the ads were originally set to air Saturday, …
Biztoc.com · August 4, 2026
Republican Billionaire Just Awarded Democrats A Free Ad While Standing Next To TrumpKeisha Lance Bottoms, Georgia’s Democratic nominee for governor, teased that her opponent Rick Jackson was finally “being honest with voters about his agenda.”
HuffPost · July 23, 2026
Georgia GOP candidate Rick Jackson faces an immigration scandal at his companyAs billionaire Republican Rick Jackson blanketed Georgia’s airwaves this spring with ads vowing a crackdown on undocumented immigrants illegal aliens if elected governor, a company in his healthcare empire was in the throes of a costly legal battle over the t…
CNN · August 20, 2026- Keisha Lance Bottoms Chances of Defeating GOP to Win Georgia Governor Race
Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson are locked in a tight race for Georgia governor, according to a new poll that shows Bottoms narrowly ahead, though the difference is within the poll's margin of error. Democrats hope to reclaim the gov…
Biztoc.com · August 11, 2026 - Georgia Candidates Gather at Chamber Luncheon to Discuss Business, Data Centers
ATHENS, Ga.—On Wednesday, a host of political candidates attended the Chamber of Commerce Congressional Luncheon to discuss initiatives, make pledges, and more. Attendees included U.S. Senate candidate Rep. Mike Collins, gubernatorial candidates Rick Jackson …
Daily Signal · August 7, 2026 - Jackson Launches Massive $87 Million Ad Blitz Against Keisha Lance Bottoms In Governor’s Race
By Rebecca Buis via The Daily Signal | August 02, 2026 Georgia gubernatorial candidate and healthcare executive Rick Jackson has launched a massive ad blitz against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. While the ads were originally set to air Saturday, …
Biztoc.com · August 4, 2026 
Trump Now Backs Rick Jackson in Georgia After His Candidate Lost PrimaryAfter his initial endorsee for Georgia governor lost his Republican primary, President Donald Trump on Thursday switched his allegiance to nominee Rick Jackson, calling on the GOP to unite behind the businessman in one of the nation's marquee gubernatorial co…
Biztoc.com · July 24, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Georgia Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Keisha Lance Bottoms (D), with roughly a 53% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+0.8. It is close enough to be a toss-up.
What do the polls say in the Georgia Governor race?
There are 7 polls of this race. The most recent, from InsiderAdvantage (2026-08-17), showed R+0.1. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+0.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Georgia Governor race?
Keisha Lance Bottoms is the Democratic candidate; Rick Jackson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Georgia Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Georgia Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) is now favored at 53%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Georgia Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.