Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+8.4 — a 71% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Ossoff’s Anti-Second Amendment Record Stands Out as Gun Manufacturers Migrate to GeorgiaAs major gun manufacturers relocate from Virginia to Georgia over firearm regulations, constitutional experts told the Daily Signal that the increasing momentum for left-leaning policies in the Peach State could jeopardize the manufacturers’ new home. Their r…
Daily Signal · June 20, 2026
Keisha Lance Bottoms SLAMS ‘MAGA’ rival in Georgia Governor raceThe stage is set in Georgia for the midterms. Billionaire Rick Jackson won the Republican primary runoff to become the GOP ...
Biztoc.com · June 17, 2026
Meet The Staffing Billionaire Who Just Won The Republican Gubernatorial Runoff In GeorgiaHis medical staffing firm lifted Rick Jackson out of poverty. Now he’s beaten Trump’s pick in Georgia’s gubernatorial runoff and will face Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Forbes · June 17, 2026- Keisha Lance Bottoms' chances of beating Republicans in Georgia governor's race
Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms enters the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial race with real momentum—and a rare opening for Democrats in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat as governor in decades. Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, giving D…
Freerepublic.com · June 17, 2026 
Bottoms: Biden 'Delivered for Georgia', I'll Put Him Up Against Trump's RecordOn Tuesday’s broadcast of CNN’s “OutFront,” Democratic nominee for Georgia governor Keisha Lance Bottoms said that she isn’t worried about her ties to former President Joe Biden hurting her and she’ll “put Biden up against Trump’s record any day of the The po…
Breitbart News · June 17, 2026
Billionaire who beat Trump's pick in Georgia faces fallout over leaked recording: analysisA MAGA billionaire gubernatorial candidate in Georgia was under fire on Wednesday after a recording surfaced with him reportedly "agreeing that women should have to 'prove' they were raped in order to qualify for an abortion," according to a report from The D…
Raw Story · June 17, 2026
The price tag of overcoming a Trump endorsement, and other takeaways from Tuesday's primariesRick Jackson's campaign spent more than $100 million, largely out of his own pocket, to defeat Trump-endorsed Burt Jones in the Republican runoff for Georgia governor.
Biztoc.com · June 17, 2026
Georgia Republicans scrap redistricting plan after voters oust Trump's pick for governorGeorgia Republicans have decided to cancel a plan to redraw the state's congressional districts to create more Republican seats, dealing a blow to President Donald Trump's nationwide gerrymandering agenda.The plan was supposed to be debated at the special ses…
Raw Story · June 17, 2026
Georgia GOP voters rebuff Trump’s governor pickWhat happened Voters in Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma on Tuesday picked nominees for governor and Congress. All three Senate candidates endorsed by President Donald Trump won their Republican primaries. But his pick for Georgia governor, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, …
Biztoc.com · June 17, 2026- Trump falls short in Georgia governor’s race: 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries - The Hill
Trump falls short in Georgia governor’s race: 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s primariesThe Hill Billionaire Rick Jackson defeats Trump-backed Burt Jones in Georgia governor racePolitico All About The Billionaire Who Is Running To Be Georgia’s Next GovernorForbes G…
Slashdot.org · June 17, 2026
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Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 2026-06-02 | 510 | D+10.0 |
| Echelon Insights | 2026-04-09 | 407 | D+6.0 |