Actual result
D+22.3
Final polls said
D+20.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Day Research | D+21.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+24.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+24.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Market Shares Corp. | D+20.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Illinois Wesleyan University Department of Political Science | D+18.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-31 | 802 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-29 | 528 | D+19.0 | 3 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-10-26 | 701 | D+20.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-10-22 | 625 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-22 | 528 | D+20.0 | 2 |
| Illinois Wesleyan University Department of Political Science | 2002-10-21 | 497 | D+18.0 | 4 |
| Richard Day Research | 2002-10-20 | 800 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-08 | 679 | D+30.0 | 8 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2002-09-29 | 701 | D+25.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-18 | 800 | D+25.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-09-16 | 621 | D+29.0 | 7 |