Actual result
D+3.4
Final polls said
R+0.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | D+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marketing Research Institute | R+4.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | R+8.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | D+15.0 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | D+16.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2002-12-03 | 625 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2002-11-26 | 700 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Marketing Research Institute | 2002-11-20 | 800 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2002-11-20 | 600 | D+16.0 | 13 |
| Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | 2002-11-11 | 679 | D+15.0 | 12 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2002-11-11 | 503 | R+8.0 | 11 |