Louisiana Senate
Julia Letlow (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Louisiana Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.8 — a 99% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
How Jamie Davis went from farmer to U.S. Senate candidate: ‘You have to get out and see people’Jamie Davis peered into the machinery between the wheels of a Peterbilt truck that hauls grain on his farm in northeast Louisiana.
The Advocate · October 5, 2026- How Jamie Davis went from farmer to U.S. Senate candidate: ‘You have to get out and see people’
Jamie Davis peered into the machinery between the wheels of a Peterbilt truck that hauls grain on his farm in northeast Louisiana.
The Advocate · October 5, 2026 
How Julia Letlow, Jamie Davis are running for Senate in Louisiana — and how their styles differU.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and farmer Jamie Davis are taking sharply contrasting routes as they run for the same job – to be the next senator from Louisiana.
The Advocate · October 2, 2026- Louisiana Senate race between Jamie Davis, Julia Letlow is about to heat up. Here’s the latest.
After a sleepy summer, Louisiana’s U.S. Senate campaign appears likely to kick into high gear now that the election is less than 60 days away.
The Advocate · September 9, 2026 - Can Jamie Davis raise enough to challenge Julia Letlow for Louisiana Senate? See the numbers.
Republican Julia Letlow has big advantages in the contest for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, but Democrat Jamie Davis is touting a haul of $1.6 million as evidence he can run a competitive race.
The Advocate · July 22, 2026
How tragedy, faith led Julia Letlow to run for Senate: ‘I needed those signs from the Lord’It was Dec. 11, 2020, only six days after Luke Letlow had won an open seat to represent the 5th Congressional District that stretched from Monroe south to the Florida Parishes.
The Advocate · October 5, 2026- How Julia Letlow, Jamie Davis are running for Senate in Louisiana — and how their styles differ
U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and farmer Jamie Davis are taking sharply contrasting routes as they run for the same job – to be the next senator from Louisiana.
The Advocate · October 2, 2026 - Louisiana Senate race between Jamie Davis, Julia Letlow is about to heat up. Here’s the latest.
After a sleepy summer, Louisiana’s U.S. Senate campaign appears likely to kick into high gear now that the election is less than 60 days away.
The Advocate · September 9, 2026 - Can Jamie Davis raise enough to challenge Julia Letlow for Louisiana Senate? See the numbers.
Republican Julia Letlow has big advantages in the contest for U.S. Senate in Louisiana, but Democrat Jamie Davis is touting a haul of $1.6 million as evidence he can run a competitive race.
The Advocate · July 22, 2026 
After Lindsey Graham's death, sister joins long list of relatives who replaced late family members in CongressFrom Julia Letlow to Adelita Grijalva, family succession in Congress has a long history that now includes Lindsey Graham's sister in the Senate.
Fox News · July 14, 2026
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The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Louisiana Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Julia Letlow (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+9.8.
What do the polls say in the Louisiana Senate race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Hart Research Associates (2026-09-19), showed R+4.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+9.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Louisiana Senate race?
Jamie Davis is the Democratic candidate; Julia Letlow is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Louisiana Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Louisiana Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Julia Letlow's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Louisiana Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.