Actual result
R+16.9
Final polls said
R+23.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | R+19.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lake Research Partners | R+9.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | R+28.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Digital Research | R+29.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-10-26 | 500 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-10-25 | 300 | R+28.0 | 11 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2002-09-23 | 400 | R+9.0 | 8 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-09-22 | 600 | R+24.0 | 7 |
| Digital Research | 2002-09-19 | 509 | R+29.0 | 12 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2002-09-19 | 500 | R+25.0 | 8 |
| RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 2002-09-09 | 523 | R+32.0 | 15 |