Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
R+3.3
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gallup | R+4.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Market Research Institute Inc. | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | R+7.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Viewpoint | R+7.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-11-03 | 600 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-02 | 958 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Gallup | 2002-11-01 | 604 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-31 | 600 | EVEN | 1 |
| American Viewpoint | 2002-10-28 | 600 | R+7.0 | 6 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2002-10-27 | 601 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-16 | 958 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| American Viewpoint | 2002-10-16 | 600 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-10-10 | 600 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-05 | 679 | EVEN | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-09-26 | 679 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2002-09-17 | 600 | D+8.0 | 9 |