Actual result
R+4.4
Final polls said
D+0.2
10 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | R+4.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+1.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates | EVEN | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.8 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | GQR | D+2.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | D+5.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Becker Institute | D+6.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-11-03 | 679 | D+1.8 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2002-11-02 | 600 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-11-01 | 644 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2002-10-29 | 933 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-29 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-26 | 648 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Becker Institute | 2002-10-22 | 401 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-21 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-15 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2002-10-15 | 500 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/McLaughlin & Associates | 2002-10-07 | 679 | EVEN | 4 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2002-10-05 | 651 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2002-10-02 | 679 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2002-10-01 | 600 | R+21.0 | 17 |
| GQR | 2002-09-18 | 500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2002-09-16 | 500 | R+9.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2002-09-16 | 600 | R+9.0 | 5 |