Actual result
R+21.0
Final polls said
R+16.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+24.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+17.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Consumer Logic | R+13.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2002-11-02 | 710 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-30 | 710 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-15 | 710 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| Consumer Logic | 2002-10-11 | 750 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2002-10-01 | 710 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2002-09-18 | 500 | R+24.0 | 3 |