Actual result
R+16.6
Final polls said
R+19.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moore Information Group | R+17.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | DHM Research | R+19.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Riley Research Associates | R+22.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHM Research | 2002-10-27 | 608 | R+19.0 | 2 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2002-10-25 | 604 | R+22.0 | 5 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2002-10-16 | 600 | R+18.0 | 1 |
| DHM Research | 2002-10-04 | 608 | R+21.0 | 4 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2002-09-25 | 600 | R+21.0 | 4 |
| Moore Information Group | 2002-09-22 | 500 | R+17.0 | 0 |