Actual result
R+10.1
Final polls said
R+7.0
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+9.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-31 | 755 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-26 | 755 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2003-10-22 | 600 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2003-10-22 | 712 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-19 | 755 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-12 | 666 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-10-05 | 666 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2003-09-25 | 666 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2003-09-07 | 666 | EVEN | 10 |