Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
R+3.1
12 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | D+2.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Market Research Insight | R+4.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+5.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 8 | OnMessage Inc. | R+7.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. | 2003-11-11 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-11-11 | 600 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-11-08 | 600 | R+8.1 | 12 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2003-11-05 | 625 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-11-04 | 600 | R+6.0 | 10 |
| Southeastern Louisiana University Social Science Research Center | 2003-11-01 | 705 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans | 2003-10-31 | 600 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-10-31 | 600 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2003-10-29 | 731 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-10-28 | 600 | R+11.0 | 15 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2003-10-22 | 601 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2003-10-20 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2003-10-19 | 666 | D+2.2 | 2 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-10-17 | 666 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-10-09 | 600 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-10-07 | 666 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2003-10-06 | 1000 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| Market Research Insight | 2003-10-02 | 666 | D+1.0 | 3 |