Actual result
R+6.8
Final polls said
R+2.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+5.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Southern Research Group | D+1.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Research Group | 2003-10-31 | 773 | D+1.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2003-10-28 | 625 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2003-10-22 | 623 | R+5.0 | 2 |