Mississippi Senate
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Mississippi Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 13 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+13.0 — a 99% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
How Worried Should Dems Be About the GOP’s Huge Cash Advantage?You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?Late Wednesday nig…
The New Republic · October 2, 2026
Is Mississippi Really On the Table?Washington Sun: “Even the most optimistic Democrats scoffed at the idea of a competitive race in the ruby-red state going into this campaign cycle. But voters’ anxiety about the economy has deepened, their opinions of President Donald Trump have tanked, and a…
Politicalwire.com · October 2, 2026
Dems zero in on one word that could sink GOP's midterm attacks: 'A real opportunity'Republicans are dusting off a familiar playbook this midterm cycle, flooding the airwaves with soft-on-crime attacks against Democratic candidates nationwide. New Democratic polling suggests there's a single word that could blunt the whole strategy: corruptio…
Raw Story · September 28, 2026
‘Mississippi has to matter’: One Democrat’s quest to flip the Deep SouthDistrict Attorney Scott Colom believes he can become Mississippi’s first Democratic senator in nearly 45 years. His confidence, he told MS NOW, comes down to math. In 2023, Democrat Brandon Presley came within 27,000 votes — less than three percentage points …
Biztoc.com · September 16, 2026
Democrat in Striking Distance of Flipping State Trump Won by 23 Points—PollRepublican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith held a 6-point lead over Democrat Scott Colom in a new poll of the Senate race in Mississippi, a state that favored President Donald Trump by more than 20 points in the 2024 election. Mississippi is not ordinarily seen as a…
Biztoc.com · August 28, 2026
- How Worried Should Dems Be About the GOP’s Huge Cash Advantage?
You’re reading The TNR Blue Book. Get daily scoops, strategy, and developments inside the liberal ideas factory delivered right to your inbox. Sign up for free.Inside Washington How worried should Dems be about the GOP’s huge cash advantage?Late Wednesday nig…
The New Republic · October 2, 2026 
This Is How Bad Things Are For RepublicansDemocratic dreams of midterm victory are alive in Mississippi and Kansas—two states that have been conservative strongholds for decades. Republican Senator Tim Scott admitted as much while speaking with Semafor about the Kansas Senate race between Republican …
The New Republic · October 1, 2026
'I've done a bad job': Trump acknowledges voter anger as GOP braces for disasterPresident Donald Trump admitted this week he's failed to convince Americans the economy is actually working, as Senate Republicans head home for the midterms carrying real fear that the party hasn't done enough to address voters' financial pain.Despite passin…
Raw Story · October 1, 2026- Dems zero in on one word that could sink GOP's midterm attacks: 'A real opportunity'
Republicans are dusting off a familiar playbook this midterm cycle, flooding the airwaves with soft-on-crime attacks against Democratic candidates nationwide. New Democratic polling suggests there's a single word that could blunt the whole strategy: corruptio…
Raw Story · September 28, 2026 
CLARITY Act needs 11 more Senate votes, but 4 of the 49 it already has want the bill changedFour Republican senators who voted to advance the CLARITY Act on Sept. 15 also appear as named supporters on a bank-backed amendment seeking tougher restrictions on stablecoin yield. As Punchbowl News reported on Sept. 21, John Cornyn, John Curtis, Cindy Hyde…
CryptoSlate · September 22, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Mississippi Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+13.0.
What do the polls say in the Mississippi Senate race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from Data for Progress (2026-08-15), showed R+6.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+13.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race?
Scott Colom is the Democratic candidate; Cindy Hyde-Smith is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Mississippi Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Mississippi Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Cindy Hyde-Smith's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Mississippi Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.