Mississippi Senate
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is favored to win the 2026 Mississippi Senate race — about a 73% chance, winning by about 10 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.8 — a 73% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
- Mississippi Senate race highlights shifting map as Democrats and Republicans battle for majority
The battle for control of the U.S. Senate isn't supposed to run through Mississippi. Scott Colom is trying to convince people that it could. “We can win he...
Yahoo Entertainment · August 7, 2026 
Will Mississippi send a Black Democrat to the US Senate? Scott Colom says don't count him outScott Colom is a Black man and a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate in Mississippi, a state traditionally led by white conservatives. Colom aims to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a white supporter of President Donald Trump who is seeking her secon…
Biztoc.com · August 7, 2026
Will Mississippi send a Black Democrat to the US Senate? Scott Colom says don't count him outScott Colom is a Black man and a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate in Mississippi, a state traditionally led by white conservatives
Abcnews.com · August 7, 2026
Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seatScott Colom challenges Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in deep-red Mississippi and is backed by George Soros' top advisor and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Fox News · July 1, 2026
Legendary strategist: GOP Senator is 'nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs'Democratic strategist James Carville is predicting an upset in deep-red Mississippi, declaring that Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is rattled by her Democratic challenger."Cindy Hyde-Smith is as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs," the famed …
Raw Story · June 20, 2026
- Will Mississippi send a Black Democrat to the US Senate? Scott Colom says don't count him out
Scott Colom is a Black man and a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate in Mississippi, a state traditionally led by white conservatives. Colom aims to unseat Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, a white supporter of President Donald Trump who is seeking her secon…
Biztoc.com · August 7, 2026 - Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seat
Scott Colom challenges Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in deep-red Mississippi and is backed by George Soros' top advisor and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Fox News · July 1, 2026 - Legendary strategist: GOP Senator is 'nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs'
Democratic strategist James Carville is predicting an upset in deep-red Mississippi, declaring that Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is rattled by her Democratic challenger."Cindy Hyde-Smith is as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs," the famed …
Raw Story · June 20, 2026 
Why Is Trump Tanking in MAGA Country? These Dems Found a Good Answer.We learned this week that the Democratic-aligned group American Bridge plans to spend $50 million to help the party’s congressional candidates in this fall’s elections. It’s a whopping sum and a big gamble. The group’s announcement of its targeted seats turne…
The New Republic · June 11, 2026
In Mississippi, a Democrat Challenges the Senator Who Blocked His Judgeship (Carl Hulse/New York Times)Carl Hulse / New York Times: In Mississippi, a Democrat Challenges the Senator Who Blocked His Judgeship — Scott Colom, a state prosecutor, is running against Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican who denied him a seat on the federal bench. In a tough yea…
Memeorandum.com · May 3, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Mississippi Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), with roughly a 73% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+9.8.
What do the polls say in the Mississippi Senate race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Impact Research (2026-04-12), showed R+3.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+9.8.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Mississippi Senate race?
Scott Colom is the Democratic candidate; Cindy Hyde-Smith is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Mississippi Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Mississippi Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.