Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+9.8 — a 73% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seatScott Colom challenges Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in deep-red Mississippi and is backed by George Soros' top advisor and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Fox News · July 1, 2026
Legendary strategist: GOP Senator is 'nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs'Democratic strategist James Carville is predicting an upset in deep-red Mississippi, declaring that Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is rattled by her Democratic challenger."Cindy Hyde-Smith is as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs," the famed …
Raw Story · June 20, 2026
In Mississippi, a Democrat Challenges the Senator Who Blocked His Judgeship (Carl Hulse/New York Times)Carl Hulse / New York Times: In Mississippi, a Democrat Challenges the Senator Who Blocked His Judgeship — Scott Colom, a state prosecutor, is running against Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican who denied him a seat on the federal bench. In a tough yea…
Memeorandum.com · May 3, 2026- Key takeaways from Tuesday’s elections: Georgia, Mississippi, New Hampshire - The Hill
Key takeaways from Tuesday’s elections: Georgia, Mississippi, New HampshireThe Hill Mississippi senator to face a prosecutor she blocked from the federal benchCNN Bennie Thompson Defeats Young Challenger in Mississippi PrimaryThe New York Times GOP Sen. Cindy…
Slashdot.org · March 11, 2026 
Scott Colom wins Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Mississippi primary electionScott Colom wins Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Mississippi primary election
Abcnews.com · March 11, 2026
- Soros network targets deep-red Mississippi in bid to flip Senate seat
Scott Colom challenges Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith in deep-red Mississippi and is backed by George Soros' top advisor and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
Fox News · July 1, 2026 - Legendary strategist: GOP Senator is 'nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs'
Democratic strategist James Carville is predicting an upset in deep-red Mississippi, declaring that Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is rattled by her Democratic challenger."Cindy Hyde-Smith is as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs," the famed …
Raw Story · June 20, 2026 
Why Is Trump Tanking in MAGA Country? These Dems Found a Good Answer.We learned this week that the Democratic-aligned group American Bridge plans to spend $50 million to help the party’s congressional candidates in this fall’s elections. It’s a whopping sum and a big gamble. The group’s announcement of its targeted seats turne…
The New Republic · June 11, 2026- In Mississippi, a Democrat Challenges the Senator Who Blocked His Judgeship (Carl Hulse/New York Times)
Carl Hulse / New York Times: In Mississippi, a Democrat Challenges the Senator Who Blocked His Judgeship — Scott Colom, a state prosecutor, is running against Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, a Republican who denied him a seat on the federal bench. In a tough yea…
Memeorandum.com · May 3, 2026 - Key takeaways from Tuesday’s elections: Georgia, Mississippi, New Hampshire - The Hill
Key takeaways from Tuesday’s elections: Georgia, Mississippi, New HampshireThe Hill Mississippi senator to face a prosecutor she blocked from the federal benchCNN Bennie Thompson Defeats Young Challenger in Mississippi PrimaryThe New York Times GOP Sen. Cindy…
Slashdot.org · March 11, 2026
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Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2026-04-12 | 500 | R+3.0 |